POLITICS

Vol. 8, No. 2
April, 1999



	POLITICS Is Al Gore Inevitable? Although the AFL-CIO has asked affiliated international unions to refrain from endorsing any presidential candidate until the August meeting of its executive council, Vice President Al Gore is certain to be its choice as the nominee of the Democratic Party. Gore's only presidential rival is former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey. Previously, three potential contenders for the nomination — Minority Leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri, Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts — dropped out of the race. Bradley appeared before the AFL-CIO council last February and delivered a bland, low-key speech that didn't differ markedly from Gore's views and aroused little enthusiasm from key labor leaders. Thus, unless Bradley proves a serious challenger to Gore, there will be almost no interest in the Democratic primaries. In the months preceding Gore's formal nomination at the Democratic Party convention, it will be difficult to create sustained public excitement for his candidacy. Meanwhile, media attention will be focused on the Republican Party primaries, where five probable candidates will be battling for the presidential nomination. The AFL-CIO will be faced with the same problem that it had in 1996, when Republican candidate Patrick Buchanan forcefully attacked Clinton for promoting the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and won considerable support from working people. The labor federation had a difficult time exposing Buchanan's phony populism. Buchanan is expected to repeat his attack on NAFTA, noting its negative effect on jobs, wages, work standards and the environment the past five years. Labor will be placed in the awkward position of supporting Gore's candidacy, while opposing his trade policies. Gore's Campaign Pros & Cons Vice President Al Gore has many advantages over possible rivals. He has had six years of first-hand experience in dealing with domestic and international issues. He has been a participant in many of the critical decisions made by the White House. He has developed cordial relations with John Sweeney and other top labor leaders and has been accepted as a proven friend of organized labor. He has many influential politicians in his corner and will have no problem funding a full-scale campaign. He also has strong talking points against a Republican challenger: a robust economy; unemployment and inflation at its lowest in decades; a record-breaking stock market and strong consumer confidence. His problems may be in foreign affairs, particularly with U.S.-China relations, Kosovo, Russia and the Middle East. And fortunately, Gore is untouched by any sex scandal. But what troubles many union leaders about Gore's prospects is his campaign style. How he goes about meeting and talking with ordinary working people can have an important effect on the outcome of the election. Gore is tall, attractive and looks presidential, but has problems as a campaigner, especially one who has to undertake the rigors of a presidential race. Some time ago, Gore himself realized what people had long observed: that he projected a "wooden" image. By satirizing himself and showing he could dance the macareña, he appeared to improve his public personality. But the problem is much deeper. Gore does not have the special qualities that successful politicians like Clinton have and use: the warm handshake, eye contact and a strong sense of empathy when they greet a potential voter. Gore can't help acting uncomfortably in the presence of working people. There is no doubt that his speech writers will give him applause-winning scripts and witty one-liners, but that may not be enough. Poll: Bush Leads by Wide Margin A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Texas Gov. George W. Bush leading Vice President Gore by 62 percent to 34 percent, with 14 percent undecided. The governor has not yet announced his probable candidacy, but he has positioned himself as a moderate Republican who can't be tarred by association with the Republican impeachment advocates. If he decides to run, he will be difficult for Gore to beat. As in past presidential elections, the Democrats will move to the right to attract more conservative voters, since they consider the labor vote in the bag. But the AFL-CIO's performance in the 1998 election should give it considerable bargaining power within the Democratic Party. It should use that bargaining power to choose a candidate for vice president who is an electrifying campaigner and can deliver a strong pro-labor message. Whether you agree or disagree with this article, we welcome your opinions. You write it and we'll print it in our next issue.— Ed.

POLITICS

Is Al Gore Inevitable?

Although the AFL-CIO has asked affiliated international unions to refrain from endorsing any presidential candidate until the August meeting of its executive council, Vice President Al Gore is certain to be its choice as the nominee of the Democratic Party.

Gore's only presidential rival is former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey. Previously, three potential contenders for the nomination — Minority Leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri, Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts — dropped out of the race. Bradley appeared before the AFL-CIO council last February and delivered a bland, low-key speech that didn't differ markedly from Gore's views and aroused little enthusiasm from key labor leaders.

Thus, unless Bradley proves a serious challenger to Gore, there will be almost no interest in the Democratic primaries. In the months preceding Gore's formal nomination at the Democratic Party convention, it will be difficult to create sustained public excitement for his candidacy. Meanwhile, media attention will be focused on the Republican Party primaries, where five probable candidates will be battling for the presidential nomination.

The AFL-CIO will be faced with the same problem that it had in 1996, when Republican candidate Patrick Buchanan forcefully attacked Clinton for promoting the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and won considerable support from working people. The labor federation had a difficult time exposing Buchanan's phony populism.

Buchanan is expected to repeat his attack on NAFTA, noting its negative effect on jobs, wages, work standards and the environment the past five years. Labor will be placed in the awkward position of supporting Gore's candidacy, while opposing his trade policies.

Gore's Campaign Pros & Cons
Vice President Al Gore has many advantages over possible rivals. He has had six years of first-hand experience in dealing with domestic and international issues. He has been a participant in many of the critical decisions made by the White House. He has developed cordial relations with John Sweeney and other top labor leaders and has been accepted as a proven friend of organized labor. He has many influential politicians in his corner and will have no problem funding a full-scale campaign.

He also has strong talking points against a Republican challenger: a robust economy; unemployment and inflation at its lowest in decades; a record-breaking stock market and strong consumer confidence. His problems may be in foreign affairs, particularly with U.S.-China relations, Kosovo, Russia and the Middle East. And fortunately, Gore is untouched by any sex scandal.

But what troubles many union leaders about Gore's prospects is his campaign style. How he goes about meeting and talking with ordinary working people can have an important effect on the outcome of the election.

Gore is tall, attractive and looks presidential, but has problems as a campaigner, especially one who has to undertake the rigors of a presidential race. Some time ago, Gore himself realized what people had long observed: that he projected a "wooden" image. By satirizing himself and showing he could dance the macareña, he appeared to improve his public personality.

But the problem is much deeper. Gore does not have the special qualities that successful politicians like Clinton have and use: the warm handshake, eye contact and a strong sense of empathy when they greet a potential voter. Gore can't help acting uncomfortably in the presence of working people. There is no doubt that his speech writers will give him applause-winning scripts and witty one-liners, but that may not be enough.

Poll: Bush Leads by Wide Margin
A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Texas Gov. George W. Bush leading Vice President Gore by 62 percent to 34 percent, with 14 percent undecided. The governor has not yet announced his probable candidacy, but he has positioned himself as a moderate Republican who can't be tarred by association with the Republican impeachment advocates. If he decides to run, he will be difficult for Gore to beat.

As in past presidential elections, the Democrats will move to the right to attract more conservative voters, since they consider the labor vote in the bag. But the AFL-CIO's performance in the 1998 election should give it considerable bargaining power within the Democratic Party. It should use that bargaining power to choose a candidate for vice president who is an electrifying campaigner and can deliver a strong pro-labor message.

Whether you agree or disagree with this article, we welcome your opinions. You write it and we'll print it in our next issue.— Ed.

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